Oscar Predictions

If you don’t care about the Oscars, stop reading. :)

Kit and I have now seen all nine Best Picture nominees. Not all the pictures for the acting categories, but it’s been a few years since we ran the Best Picture slate, and never since they expanded it, so this is pretty cool. Anyway, here are my will win/should win picks for the major categories.

Original Screenplay
Should win: Moonrise Kingdom, only because it was snubbed in other categories and it’s a beautiful film that deserves more recognition. But the screenplay is very Wes Anderson-y, and the strength of the film is in the execution, not the writing. Still, it might sneak by.
Will win: Django Unchained, because it is sharply written and I don’t think it’ll get many other awards.

Adapted Screenplay
Should win: Life of Pi, for taking a difficult book and making it work so well on the screen.
Will win: Lincoln, in the start of what I think will be a big night for Spielberg and the five-dollar president.

Best Animated Feature
Should win: Wreck-It Ralph. Best story of the lot, and pretty good animation, a mix of a lot of styles. Brave does some dazzling work technically, but alas, not storywise.
Will win: Wreck-It Ralph. Pixar has dominated this category and unless a lot of voters automatically check the Pixar box, I think people will be slightly disappointed with their offering this year.

Best Director
Should win: Ang Lee. Did I mention that Life of Pi is an amazing achievement?
Will win: Some people are picking Lee, but I think Spielberg is going to take this one.

Best Supporting Actor
Should win: You couldn’t go wrong with any of those performances. I haven’t seen “The Master,” but hear great things about Hoffman in it, and he’s amazing no matter what. I might lean toward Cristoph Waltz again just because I loved his character.
Will win: I think De Niro, but Waltz might get it.

Best Supporting Actress
Should win: Anne Hathaway. She did an amazing job in Les Miserables, and people love her for it (note I have not seen “The Master” or “The Sessions”).
Will win: Hathaway.

Best Actor
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis. There’s really no discussion here.
Will win: Day-Lewis.

Best Actress
Should win: Emmanuelle Riva, for Amour. She was just amazing in that role, the expressiveness and depth she brought to the character in a challenging role, which the Academy loves.
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence, who did almost as well in a much more accessible film.

Best Picture
Should win: Life of Pi (are you getting the feeling I like this movie?), an amazing achievement cinematically, a lovely script, a wonderful story. What it doesn’t have are outstanding (read: nominated) acting performances, and that might drag it down. But Ang Lee has had films nominated four times and has never had one of them win, though he has won Best Director (for Brokeback Mountain), so perhaps this might be his opportunity to be recognized–he also produced Life of Pi.
Will win: There is buzz for Argo, but I am going to predict Lincoln and another big night for Spielberg.

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